In the
reference with my article of “Fuzzy Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan” posted
on link:

**http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/02/fuzzy-delphi-method-to-design-strategic.html**, the forces, which come from PEST (Political, Economic, Socio-Cultural and Technology), have the most crucial role to design a strategic plan in which we should accurately recognize and determine the source, type, amount and direction of these forces. Some people entitle theses forces like the Conspiracy (توطئه) but we should know that these forces have always surrounded and encompassed us in the reality of the world and we have to deal with them to reach our new vision and mission. Against these forces, we have Pseudo-forces (some people say the Mirage of conspiracy (توطئه توّهم)). If we take a mistake to select these forces for designing our strategic plan for instance, using the collection of many pseudo-forces, we have to pay too much cost. Sometime big mistakes will push a company toward the collapse.
First
of all, let me tell you that we have to add another independent force which is
assigned to the natural forces. Referring to my article of “Case Analysis of GAINESBORO MACHINE TOOLS
CORPORATION: The Dividend Policy” posted on link:

**http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/03/case-analysis-of-gainesboro-machine.html**
The
environmental disaster, which is named as the natural force, was Hurricane
Katrina. It was caused the huge destruction across the south-eastern United
States. Therefore, I think that we have to change PEST analysis to PNEST
analysis where we have: Political, Natural, Economic, Socio-Cultural and
Technology.

Traditionally,
the people said: “someone, who has the money and the power, is able to generate
these forces in which the money and the power are respectively assigned to
Economic and Politic forces. On the other hand, powerful Corporations simultaneously
release several forces in different directions. But we should know and
recognize which one of these forces is the real force and which one is
pseudo-force to design a reasonable strategic plan and consequently to decrease
our costs”.

But,
nowadays we as well as know that there are other independent forces for
example:

- In Socio-Cultural force: Iran presidential election on Jun 14, 2013
was a Socio-Cultural force in which the direction of this force was toward the
whole of the world. You can track all events and propositions (news) released
after this election up to know and by using a cause- effect system such as
Fuzzy Logic Control, establish the best logical relationships among these
events and propositions.

- In
Technology force: The best example for this type of force is “the click” on
Internet. When you are willing to read an article or see an advertisement on
Internet, you are urged to click a page on Internet where the source of this
force comes from Technology and it is a Technology force. In fact, you are
forced to pay the cost of Internet or the pages on Internet.

In the case of
the big Corporations, which produce several forces in different directions, the
mathematics says us another thing. I was really surprized, when I perceived the
viewpoint of the mathematics about these real and pseudo forces. In fact, there
is Fuzzy logic vs. Classic logic.

Let me start it
by an example;

Assume the
company “X” is willing to have the new vision and mission for next 5 years.
Definitely this company should design a new strategic plan and firstly should
have an external analysis. All
assumptions and predictions for external analysis come from recent propositions
and events inferred from PNEST analysis in which all threats and opportunities
should be collected from these propositions and events. For instance:

Proposition “p”
= a Political force

Proposition “q”
= an Economic force

In the cause –
effect system, we have:

If “p” Then “q” or If “q” Then “p”

Which one is
true?

In classic
logic we have: If “p” Then “q” = min (1, 1+q-p) where true = 1 and false = 0

Sometime, we
have the combination of the forces for instance:

Proposition “p”
= a Political force

Proposition “q”
= an Economic force

Proposition “r”
= a Technology force

If “p” and “q”
Then “r”

In Fuzzy Logic
Control, we usually use from Mamdani (1975)’s approach to determine that if
above cause-effect combination is true or false.

In the classic
logic system, above cause-effect combination is the true or the false but in
the fuzzy logic system, there are many value for above cause-effect combination
where we say the degree of accuracy is high or low.

Now, let us go
to further in which we utilize fuzzy logic system accompanied by Monte Carlo
Simulation model. In this way, we have an environment with high speed changes.

In the term of
an environment with high speed changes, the mathematics proves us that there is
not any difference between real forces and pseudo-forces. In fact, all forces
should be considered to design a strategic plan but we have to find high degree
of the accuracy or relationships among the events and propositions to decrease
our costs. Nowadays, when I am watching CNBC or Bloomberg channel on satellite
or tracking the share prices some companies on Google Finance, I can feel the
real meaning of high speed changes.

In the
reference with above mentioned, the mathematics proves us a general theorem as
follows:

*“All events (propositions) in the universe with high speed changes are related together where only difference among connections is assigned to the degree of relationship”*
Therefore, if
above theorem is the true, we can say that there is not any “ABSOLUTE
ZERO” in the universe with high speed changes.

In the next article, I will tell you: “How
can the mathematics help us to find high
degree of the accuracy or relationships among the events and propositions to
decrease our costs by using Fuzzy set theory, Pascal’s Triangular and Bayesian
logic?. And so, how can we have the data or some real propositions (events) on
our excel spreadsheet ones which are changing with high speed?”