Friday, December 27, 2013

External Real Forces and Pseudo-Forces to Design a Strategic Plan (Fuzzy logic Vs. Classic Logic)

In the reference with my article of “Fuzzy Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan” posted on link: http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/02/fuzzy-delphi-method-to-design-strategic.html, the forces, which come from PEST (Political, Economic, Socio-Cultural and Technology), have the most crucial role to design a strategic plan in which we should accurately recognize and determine the source, type, amount and direction of these forces. Some people entitle theses forces like the Conspiracy (توطئه‌) but we should know that these forces have always surrounded and encompassed us in the reality of the world and we have to deal with them to reach our new vision and mission. Against these forces, we have Pseudo-forces (some people say the Mirage of conspiracy (توطئه‌ توّهم)). If we take a mistake to select these forces for designing our strategic plan for instance, using the collection of many pseudo-forces, we have to pay too much cost. Sometime big mistakes will push a company toward the collapse.
First of all, let me tell you that we have to add another independent force which is assigned to the natural forces. Referring to my article of “Case Analysis of GAINESBORO MACHINE TOOLS CORPORATION: The Dividend Policy” posted on link: http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/03/case-analysis-of-gainesboro-machine.html
 The environmental disaster, which is named as the natural force, was Hurricane Katrina. It was caused the huge destruction across the south-eastern United States. Therefore, I think that we have to change PEST analysis to PNEST analysis where we have: Political, Natural, Economic, Socio-Cultural and Technology.
Traditionally, the people said: “someone, who has the money and the power, is able to generate these forces in which the money and the power are respectively assigned to Economic and Politic forces. On the other hand, powerful Corporations simultaneously release several forces in different directions. But we should know and recognize which one of these forces is the real force and which one is pseudo-force to design a reasonable strategic plan and consequently to decrease our costs”.
But, nowadays we as well as know that there are other independent forces for example:
- In Socio-Cultural force: Iran presidential election on Jun 14, 2013 was a Socio-Cultural force in which the direction of this force was toward the whole of the world. You can track all events and propositions (news) released after this election up to know and by using a cause- effect system such as Fuzzy Logic Control, establish the best logical relationships among these events and propositions.
- In Technology force: The best example for this type of force is “the click” on Internet. When you are willing to read an article or see an advertisement on Internet, you are urged to click a page on Internet where the source of this force comes from Technology and it is a Technology force. In fact, you are forced to pay the cost of Internet or the pages on Internet.
In the case of the big Corporations, which produce several forces in different directions, the mathematics says us another thing. I was really surprized, when I perceived the viewpoint of the mathematics about these real and pseudo forces. In fact, there is Fuzzy logic vs. Classic logic.
Let me start it by an example;
Assume the company “X” is willing to have the new vision and mission for next 5 years. Definitely this company should design a new strategic plan and firstly should have an external analysis.  All assumptions and predictions for external analysis come from recent propositions and events inferred from PNEST analysis in which all threats and opportunities should be collected from these propositions and events. For instance:
Proposition “p” = a Political force
Proposition “q” = an Economic force
In the cause – effect system, we have:
 If “p” Then “q” or If “q” Then “p”
Which one is true?
In classic logic we have: If “p” Then “q” = min (1, 1+q-p) where true = 1 and false = 0
Sometime, we have the combination of the forces for instance:
Proposition “p” = a Political force
Proposition “q” = an Economic force
Proposition “r” = a Technology force
If “p” and “q” Then “r”
In Fuzzy Logic Control, we usually use from Mamdani (1975)’s approach to determine that if above cause-effect combination is true or false.
Fuzzy logic vs. Classic logic
In the classic logic system, above cause-effect combination is the true or the false but in the fuzzy logic system, there are many value for above cause-effect combination where we say the degree of accuracy is high or low.
Now, let us go to further in which we utilize fuzzy logic system accompanied by Monte Carlo Simulation model. In this way, we have an environment with high speed changes.
In the term of an environment with high speed changes, the mathematics proves us that there is not any difference between real forces and pseudo-forces. In fact, all forces should be considered to design a strategic plan but we have to find high degree of the accuracy or relationships among the events and propositions to decrease our costs. Nowadays, when I am watching CNBC or Bloomberg channel on satellite or tracking the share prices some companies on Google Finance, I can feel the real meaning of high speed changes.
In the reference with above mentioned, the mathematics proves us a general theorem as follows:
“All events (propositions) in the universe with high speed changes are related together where only difference among connections is assigned to the degree of relationship”
Therefore, if above theorem is the true, we can say that there is not any “ABSOLUTE ZERO” in the universe with high speed changes.
In the next article, I will tell you: “How can the mathematics help us to find high degree of the accuracy or relationships among the events and propositions to decrease our costs by using Fuzzy set theory, Pascal’s Triangular and Bayesian logic?. And so, how can we have the data or some real propositions (events) on our excel spreadsheet ones which are changing with high speed?”