Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Application of Pascal’s Triangular Plus Monte Carlo Analysis to Design a Strategic Plan


Following to article of “Fuzzy Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan” posted on link: http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/02/fuzzy-delphi-method-to-design-strategic.html, the purpose of this article is to utilize a new simulation model to design the strategic plan instead of FDM where I had already depicted this simulation model in article of “Application of Pascal’s Triangular Plus Monte Carlo Analysis to Appraise the Wisdom of Crowds” on link: http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/05/application-of-pascals-triangular-plus_08.html. The most important finding is to show the advantages of this simulation model to design the strategic plan in which I have compared the results with FDM.
The template of this article is the same “Fuzzy Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan”.

Methodology

As you remember, I started an example of Driving Forces (DF) in article of “Fuzzy Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan” where I chose 14 experts to respond my survey questionnaire about the ranking of driving forces issues as follows:
   
DF
   P
    M
   O
DF1
1
5.79
10
DF2
2
6.36
10
DF3
1
6.36
10
DF4
1
6.43
10
DF5
1
6.14
10
DF6
1
6.29
10
DF7
2
6.14
10
DF8
1
6.29
10
DF9
1
6.07
10
DF10
1
6.29
10
DF11
2
6.86
10
DF12
1
6.36
10
DF13
2
6.00
9
DF14
2
6.43
10


Now, I am willing to use this simulation model step by step instead of FDM as follows:
I1 I look at the minimum and maximum of the ranking responses by experts for each driving force. In this case, I do not need to repeat data collection from experts just like to Delphi Method because the experts should only answer one number. In fact, this method do not need to have Linguistic Values such as Pessimistic = P, Most likely = M, and Optimistic = O. Therefore, the accuracy of the responses will increase only by one time data collection.

I2 I assume that I have collected the data from 50, 100 and 200 experts so that I expand the numbers into a limited range of the ranking by increase of the experts where real number of the experts is 14. As the matter of fact, I can say you that it can be the similar the repetitions in Delphi Method.  
I3 I utilize the simulation model mentioned in article of “Application of Pascal’s Triangular Plus Monte Carlo Analysis to Appraise the Wisdom of Crowds” on link: 


http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/05/application-of-pascals-triangular-plus_08.html.

(Please read carefully it before the continuation of this article)

Discussion and Data Analysis

Referring to the example included in article of “Fuzzy Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan”, you can see that there are three ranges of the ranking responded by the experts below cited:

Xmin = 1, Xmax = 10
 Ymin = 2, Ymax = 10
Zmin = 2, Zmax = 9

By using of this simulation model, the final results for 50, 100, and 200 experts will be as follows:

50 Experts:

Xmin= 1 to Xmax = 10
Average
6.107455
STDEV
0.140204999
Ave(STD)
0.14474197
CV
0.023699228
Ymin= 2 to Ymax = 10
Average
6.537685818
STDEV
0.1316774
Ave(STD)
0.132140879
CV
0.02021218
Zmin= 2 to Zmax = 9
Average
5.975219182
STDEV
0.113890746
Ave(STD)
0.11444645
CV
0.019153515

100 Experts:

Xmin= 1 to Xmax = 10
Average
6.033304225
STDEV
0.111575614
Ave(STD)
0.106823434
CV
0.017705627
Ymin= 2 to Ymax = 10
Average
6.4742536
STDEV
0.096731927
Ave(STD)
0.096762967
CV
0.01494581
Zmin= 2 to Zmax = 9
Average
5.915929675
STDEV
0.079107522
Ave(STD)
0.083170539
CV
0.014058744

200 Experts:

Xmin= 1 to Xmax = 10
Average
5.884592
STDEV
0.05611
Ave(STD)
0.053924
CV
0.009164
Ymin= 2 to Ymax = 10
Average
6.340549
STDEV
0.05075
Ave(STD)
0.049573
CV
0.007818
Zmin= 2 to Zmax = 9
Average
5.79915
STDEV
0.042235
Ave(STD)
0.041204
CV
0.007105

Regarding to the threshold as alpha-cut which was equal to 6 (alpha-cut = 6), the appropriate driving forces for responses of 50, 100, and 200 experts are as follows:

 The appropriate driving forces 50 Experts:

All driving forces will be considered by the experts as the most impact factors except (D13) which is “Regulatory influences government policies changes”.

 The appropriate driving forces 100 Experts:

All driving forces will be considered by the experts as the most impact factors except (D13) which is “Regulatory influences government policies changes”.

The appropriate driving forces 200 Experts:

In this case, the appropriate driving forces are:

DF2:  Increasing globalization

DF7:  Marketing innovation

DF11:  Growing buyer preferences for differentiated products instead of standardized commodity product (or for a more standardized product instead of strongly differentiated products)
DF14:  Changing societal concerns, attitudes, and life styles
As you can see, the final results for 200 experts are the similar to the final results of the article of “Delphi Method to Design a Strategic Plan” posted on link: http://emfps.blogspot.com/2012/02/fuzzy-delphi-method-to-design-strategic.html

Conclusion

Finally, let me tell you about the advantages and disadvantage of this simulation model in comparing with FDM as follows:

Advantages:  

Ø  To delete Linguistic Values such as Pessimistic = P, Most likely = M, and
Optimistic = O
Ø  To eliminate the repetition of the experts’ responses
Ø  To increase the accuracy of the responses
Ø  To save the cost and the time

Disadvantage:

In the reference with above item (I1), I have still doubt about the increase the accuracy of the responses collected only in the first round because it is possible, in the second or third round, the range of the ranking will increase. This simulation model is very sensitive to be changed the minimum and maximum of the ranking.  

 
Note:  “All spreadsheets and calculation notes are available. The people, who are interested in having my spreadsheets of this method as a template for further practice, do not hesitate to ask me by sending an email to: soleimani_gh@hotmail.com or call me on my cellphone: +989109250225. Please be informed these spreadsheets are not free of charge.”