Thursday, March 1, 2012

Tutorial: A practice of Monte Carlo Simulation Model


I would like to teach the Monte Carlo Simulation Model as the risk management analysis tool in the projects. The practice will be done on a real project.
The example of the case study is: “A Financial Analysis on Nord Stream Gas Pipeline project”
All data have been collected from below references:
-The European Union of the Natural Gas Industry (THE EUROGAS ECONOMIC STUDY TASK FORCE)
-NATURAL GAS PRICING AND ITS FUTURE EUROPE AS THE BATTLEGROUND (2010 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
-European Environment Agency (EN31 Energy prices)
- British Petroleum (BP-AMOCO)
- International Energy Agency (IEA)
- Eurostat
-International Gas Union
- Cedigaz
- Energy Information Administration, Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
- World Energy Council
- European Gas Advocacy Forum (The Future Role of Natural Gas)

- EUROPE’S ENERGY PORTAL
-MIT CEEPR (MIT Centre for Energy and Environmental Policy Research)
- The Oil Drum: The European Gas Market
-Nord Stream (The Project & the Environment – The Natural Gas Pipeline through the Baltic Sea)

- Europe and natural gas - Are tough choices ahead? By Rune Likvern

-Wikipedia
In this package, I will tell you:
 -How we can analyze the initial investment of the project in the different states of economic (different outcomes) to obtain NPV> 0 and IRR > WACC?
-What could the strategies be behind a very large profit margin in NG supply in Europe?
-If high profit margin move toward low profit margin, how will it be affecting on financial costs?
The professional individuals, who are interested in learning this simulation model, don’t hesitate to send their request by email to me for further information.
My email is: soleimani_gh@hotmail.com